Large Convective Bursts near the Gulf Coast

The Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast states have seen a plethora of thunderstorms since about mid-April.  One of these episodes was a multi-day event that spanned April 16 – April 20.  Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall (especially in and around Houston) and some significant severe weather (more hail and wind than tornadoes) traversed the region.  The below animation shows these events and I included an example Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion (MPD) from WPC as a reference to the heavy rain.

GOES-13 Infrared imagery with GOES-R Lightning Detection (Density) spanning five days (04/16-4/20).

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion (MPD) for southeast Texas on 04/18/15.

More recently, on the evening of 04/22/15, a couple strong supercell thunderstorms moved off the Texas coast near the Corpus Christi area and traversed the offshore waters passing relatively close to a couple oil platforms.  One of the more amazing attributes to the storms was the strong reflectivities of near 75 dbz!  Although these were measured at high altitudes (based on the beam height), it’s interesting to note that large hail may have been occurring well offshore in the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) offshore zones.  I have included a few animations showing the evolution of these supercells.

Animation of the GOES-R Convective Initiation product with GLD-360 lightning strokes overlaid valid 4/22-4/23.

National WSR-88D Mosaic base reflectivity with the Overshooting Top Magnitude (OTM) product overlaid highlighting the most intense updrafts associated with the supercells. The OTM product provides the difference between the overshoot and the surrounding cirrus clouds.

National WSR-88D Mosaic base reflectivity overlaid with the GOES-R Lightning Detection (Density) product in 5-minute increments. Note the extreme amount of lightning occurring with the dominant supercells in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is a post from the National Weather Service Office in Houston-Galveston which nicely summarizes the threat posed to mariners from offshore supercells.

All mariners out there…this is why you should ALWAYS heed a Special Marine Warning. Buoy 42019 measured a 76 kt / 87 mph wind gust at 729 PM associated with this Gulf of Mexico thunderstorm!

Posted by US National Weather Service Houston-Galveston Texas on Wednesday, April 22, 2015

 

Thank you for reading!

Overshooting Tops with Evening Texas Severe Convection

The GOES-R Overshooting Top (OT) Detection algorithm (applied to current GOES) was utilized during the very early morning hours of June 23 across the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. This algorithm, which automatically detects the location of OT’s using the GOES IR window channel, has proven to be especially valuable in monitoring the evolution of mature convection, especially overnight in the absence of the higher resolution visible imagery. As has been mentioned in previous posts, OT’s indicate the presence of strong updrafts within a convective system, and likely areas of hazardous weather. The algorithm provides forecasters with a tool to quickly spot, in the imagery, where OT’s are present as well as trends in the feature.

By 0400Z on the 23rd, an MCS was propagating across the Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma, producing heavy rainfall and severe winds across the region. An SPC forecaster on shift viewing the OT product utilized it to help monitor trends in the strongest updrafts and areas most likely to be experiencing hazardous weather. The forecaster mentions in a 0723Z SPC Watch Update Mesoscale Discussion (MD,Fig. 1): “TRENDS IN 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI AND GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS SINCE AT LEAST 0530z HAVE BEEN FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK…WITH FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 35-40 KT TOWARD THE SSE.”

Fig 1: SPC MD 1127. MD text: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md1127.html

Figure 2 is an animation of  GOES-East IR imagery with overshooting tops and SPC storm reports overlayed during the time of and in the vicinity of the MD. Notice the cluster of persistent Overshooting Tops within the large cloud shield across the Texas panhandle between 0415 and 0530Z. This is where the highest concentration of severe weather (and heavy rainfall) was reported. Between 0530 and 0730 UTC, the MCS continued to propagate to the SSE as the overshooting tops became more spread out along the leading edge of the system from the southern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as was mentioned in the MD. A few wind reports and heavy rainfall were reported in the vicinity of the persistent OT’s. After 1000Z, the OT’s dropped off completely as the MCS began to weaken.

Fig. 2: June 23, 2014 0415-1345 UTC GOES-East IR imagery, Overshooting Top Magnitude, SPC storm reports.

 

-Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison

Alabama/Florida Panhandle Flooding

The storms that ravaged the southern United States this past week not only produced deadly severe weather, but also incredible flooding. Figure 1 shows parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama received in excess of 10 inches of rain on Tuesday, April 29 alone!

Figure 1: April 29 12Z to April 30 12Z precipitation analysis. More negative values indicate stronger OT’s

A previous blog post introduced the Overshooting Top Detection product and explained its utility in severe weather situations. Overshooting tops are also indicators of where heavy rainfall may be occurring. Furthermore, the constant presence of overshooting tops over a particular location over an extended period of time may indicate a prolonged period of heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding.

The animation in Figure 2 shows GOES-East IR imagery with overshooting top detection’s overlaid from the afternoon of the April 29 into the early morning hours of the April 30. During much of this period, GOES-East was in Rapid Scan Mode, meaning images were often available every 5-10 minutes (instead of 15). Notice the persistence of overshooting tops centered over the Mobile area throughout the period, where copious amounts of rainfall were recorded. By about 09Z, a downward trend in overshooting top detection’s had begun as the storm system shifted eastward and weakened. The Overshooting Top Detection product provides a day/night capability for forecasters to easily identify where within a convective system the strongest updrafts are occurring, and where severe weather and/or heavy rainfall may be occurring given other meteorological factors.

Figure 2: April 29 22Z – April 30 10Z GOES-East IR with Overshooting Top Magnitude overlaid.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3 shows this same system during the early morning hours of April 30 at much higher resolution. This is a 375 m IR image taken with the Suomi NPP VIIRS instrument. Notice the visibility of features that aren’t easily seen in current GOES IR imagery such as gravity waves and overshooting tops.

Figure 3: April 30 0645Z Suomi NPP VIIRS 375 m IR

 

– Bill Line, SPC/HWT GOES-R Satellite Liaison

Overshooting Tops with Evening 4/24/14 Mississippi Storm

Overshooting Tops (OT’s) are domelike bulges atop an anvil cloud that indicate a particularity strong updraft within a convective system that has vertically penetrated the tropopause. Areas of convection possessing OT’s are often associated with hazardous weather at the surface, including lightning, heavy rainfall, and severe weather. An OT Detection (OTD) algorithm has been developed to highlight the presence of overshooting tops, and quantify their strength. This product is especially useful at night in the absence of higher resolution visible imagery and in areas where radar coverage is limited or absent.

The OTD algorithm is currently under evaluation at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as part of a GOES-R Proving Ground demonstration. Thus far, SPC forecasters have found this product to be especially useful at night, but also valuable during the daytime. They like that it makes the OT’s stand out, making it easy to observe trends in the feature over several hours. It provides them with additional situational awareness, confirming some of what they may already know in areas of good radar coverage. Finally, forecasters have found it to be useful to monitor trends in OTD’s as a way to monitor mature convective evolution. A persistent OT (or cluster of OT’s) indicates a long-lived strong updraft and storm, while the disappearance of said OT’s over the next few scans is a sign that the updraft is weakening, and the storm may be dissipating.

This final point was on display last night, when an SPC forecaster used the OT product in his decision-making process when issuing an SPC Mesoscale Discussion (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0401.html). He noted “The GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED A DIMINISHING TREND OVER EAST CENTRAL MS SUCH THAT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE LIKELY WEAKENING”. The animation below shows the IR imagery, storm reports, and OT magnitude with this particular event in NAWIPS.

Figure 1: April 24, 2014: 2332 – 0245 UTC. GOES-East IR imagery, Overshooting Top Magnitude, and SPC storm reports. For storm reports, a=hail, A=large hail (2″ dia. +), w=wind). Colorbar on left is IR brightness temperature, colorbar on right is overshooting top magnitude (difference in brightness temperature between overshooting top and surrounding anvil).

Notice an OT was first detected with the storm of interest at 0015 UTC in west central Mississippi. This feature was detected by the algorithm over the next several scans (0015-0200 UTC) until 0215, when the OT had collapsed and was no longer detected (as another storm with OTD’s approached from the northwest). The associated storm produced severe winds and large hail at the surface along its path before weakening during the hour after the last scan in which the OT was detected. Particularly large hail (4.25″!) was reported in central Mississippi at 0120 UTC, just after a measured increase was observed in the OT magnitude. This case shows the value in using this product to monitor trends in mature convective evolution and particularly long-lived storms, and how decreasing trends in OTD’s may be a precursor to the dissipation of the convection.

Forecasters will continue to evaluate this product and provide feedback on its operational utility in the SPC. They understand that the algorithm will be much improved and more valuable in the GOES-R era with the increased spatial and temporal resolution of the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imagery (ABI).

– Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison